Good day people! Lets recap last week shall we? Ok, if you followed all my picks we went 7-5-1, not a bad week at all. The Upset Special was a Loss and the Lock was a win. On the year, we're at 52-48-1, 4-3 on Locks of the Week and 2-5 on Upset Specials. We're not doing great, but we are in good position halfway through the season to get you a lot of money. SO LETS WIN BABY! This week, I am picking fast b/c i just got like 3 new Xbox 360 games and they rule my life right now. On to the picks. As always, all lines are from TheGreek. Hot cheerleader is Carolyn from the Carolina Panthers. Scroll to the bottom if you want to skip to the Upset Special and the Lock of the Week.*
Denver at Baltimore OVER 41.5
This one is a tough game to pick the winner of. On the one hand, Denver is undefeated, on the other hand Baltimore is probably a more talented team. Compounding the issue is that both teams are coming off a bye week, giving them 2 weeks to prepare for this game. What to do? Pick the over! Baltimore's defense has been thrown on all year and Baltimore's passing game is the most dynamic part of their offense, even with 2 weeks for each team's defense to prepare for this game, it is going to be a high scoring affair. Play it safe and take the over.
Cleveland at CHICAGO -13.5
This game shouldn't really even be a contest. The Bears are by no means a great team, but the Browns are such a horrible team, even an average squad like the Bears will dominate them. With Tommy Harris coming back to the Bears defensive line, the one chance that Jamal Lewis had to find room to run has disappeared. Don't look for the Bears to overlook this game either after last week's evisceration by the Packers. This game will be like a Big 10 team scheduling a D-1-AA squad for homecoming. No contest. Take the Bears, don't think about it too much.
HOUSTON -3.5 at Buffalo
This spread could be -9 and I would't be shocked at all. Let me put this as clearly as I can...the Bills will not even come close to winning this game. Even Houston's sieve-like defense will contain the well-educated Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. Take the Texans, watch the flood of points wash away your money woes.
SAN FRANCISCO +12 at Indianapolis
Maybe i'm giving Mike Singletary a little too much credit here, but I just cannot see how they get blown out against Indianapolis even in Indy. As great as the Colts have looked this year, they really haven't played a team yet with a great defense except for Miami...and that game was decided by 4 points. In the 49ers two road games this year, they have lost by a total of 6 points (they lost by 3 each game). I have a pretty decent blowout sensor and it is not tingling right now. Take the 49ers.
MIAMI +3.5 at New York Jets
These teams last faced each other just 3 weeks ago, scoring 58 points total with the Dolphins winning by 4 points. In that game, at Miami, the Jets were favored by 3 points and the O/U was 36. Oh, how things change, well not by much. In this game at the Meadowlands the Jets are favored now by 3.5 and the O/U has been bumped up a bit to 40.5. So last time they played, the underdog covered and the Over won...and if the current lines were used on that game, the same thing would've happened. I'm not going to screw with this extremely limited statistical historical analysis (if you can call it that) and I am taking the Dolphins. If you wanted to go nuts and do a correlated parlay, I would take the Over. Why not. If you dont learn from history...ah I forget.
ST. LOUIS +4 at Detroit
This will happen. They might even get off the schneid and win the damn thing. I mean, who is going to start at QB for Detroit? Stafford's knee is all jacked up, Culpepper has a gimpy hammy and Drew Stanton is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Add to that Calvin "Megatron" Johnson's own knee injury and I smell an offense that can be stopped even by the Ram's sorry ass defense. I hope, sincerely hope, that Steven Jackson has a big day. That guy deserves at least one win. Take the Rams.
Seattle at DALLAS -9.5
Yea, last week's game probably was a fluke for the Cowboys, but Seattle's defense is a joke...unless you're Jacksonville, then the joke is on them I guess. I expect another solid showing from the Romo to Austin connection and the running backs should run wild over the Seahawks. Also, Dallas' D has actually been playing well as of late and should be able to bottle up the one dimensional Seattle offense. Take the Cowboys in this event.
New York Giants at PHILADELPHIA +1
A home dog? You serious?? In the NFC East??? Can I keep going with these questions???? Are you annoyed yet????? Well think of how annoyed Eagles fans are with Andy Reid, Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick and Brian Westbrook. Reid won't call a run, McNabb has become the bounce pass king, which is great for basketball but not football, Vick has lost not just a step, but it appears as if he's lost a foot out there with the speed he's moving at, and Westbrook cannot finish a game...and he barely starts any anyway. So why am I picking them? Because their D will win this game for them. Also, Eli is hurt and Bradshaw is hurt. The Eagles play D so aggressively they will force a couple turnovers out of those guys. Throw in a little special teams magic and the Eagles win this home game by a touchdown. Pick the Eagles.
Minnesota at Green Bay UNDER 47
I've gone back and forth on this game and I can make a case for both teams winning. So that means I am going with the O/U for you to bet on. The over/under has gone from 48.5 to 47 very fast this week, despite around 3/4th of the action on the over. This, to me, means sharps are all over the under....and so am I. Take the under.
Carolina at Arizona UNDER 41
I see this game being like a 27-9 type affair where the Panthers get close and end up kicking field goals and going for it and failing on 4th down a lot, while the Cards score a few easy touchdowns on long drives as they rack up the yardage against the Panthers' weak D. With the pick-6 machine Delhomme at QB though, anything could happen though. I am hoping the Cardinals just intercept the ball and they don't run it back for any scores. That'd blow it all up for you and me. Take the Under.
ATLANTA +10 at New Orleans
Its Monday night, isnt there a law that these games should be close? The Saints are devastating on offense and pestering on defense but after the Falcons' blow out defeat last week, I can see them making a game of it in prime time.
UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK
OAKLAND +1050 at San Diego
Ok, we all know this won't happen. But won't it be fun to root for it to happen? Its not like you really want to take SD at -16.5 and its not like you want to take all those points and bet on the Raiders...even the over/under is 50/50 here. This is the only sensible thing to do. I mean if you hit this game, you will win a lot of money...like a lot. A simple $100 bet will get you $1,050 back. I mean, you gotta at least try it! Its not like 1) Oakland hasn't beaten a decent team, they have when they beat the Eagles and its not like 2) You can trust Norv Turner. I can see the Chargers flubbing this one. It can happen. If it does, you can take advantage. BIG TIME. This is why this is the UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK
LOCK OF THE WEEK
JACKSONVILLE +3 at Tennessee
So the Titans are starting Vince Young at QB for this game. Jacksonville wins. Its that easy, really. If you really wanted to get cocky you'd just take the Jaguars ML at +145. That's not big enough odds for me so just take the points and enjoy the easy win. It is the LOCK OF THE WEEK.
*Deuce of Davenport is only doing this column for entertainment purposes only, you'd be a fool to actually follow any of this advice and/or these picks. We accept no responsibility for anyone actually gambling with these picks.