Week 5 was a whole lot of more of the same, I got a little too cute with a few picks and ended up going 7-6 with my picks. I was perfect on my Upset Specials and Locks of the week though, so for the season we're at 39-35, 3-2 on locks of the week and 2-3 on upset specials. Really, I am the most mediocre prognosticator there is, but it appears in the long term, you should finish enough over .500 to maybe break even...which is not good enough my friends. You deserve more. This week, we're shooting for near perfection. Its been a long work week (hence why this place has been a ghost town this week), so my writeups will be quick, but here are the picks. As always, all lines are from TheGreek. Hot cheerleader is Tiffany Jimenez from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Scroll to the bottom if you want to skip to the Upset Special and the Lock of the Week.*
KANSAS CITY +6.5 at Washington
Washington is playing with just 2 actual offensive linemen, the other 3 are just getting a headstart for halloween. I dont care how stout their D can be, Chiefs are, more than likely, winning this one straight up. If the Redskins do pull it out, it certainly wont be by a touchdown. Feel safe with this one.
Houston at Cincinnati OVER 46
All the Bengals do is play in close games, why should this one be any different against the occasionally high flying Texans' offense. I thought about taking Texans +5 because of that, but I also expect this game to be a shootout. Each team scoring in bunches. Just play it safe and take the over.
Cleveland at PITTSBURGH -14
I'm not sure if the Browns will gain over 100 yards here. Only way the Steelers don't win by more than 2 scores is if their horrible 4th quarter prevent D blows another huge lead. Lets hope they've figured that 4th quarter out. You'd think a team that won the Super Bowl the year before would have an inclination as to how to finish out a game strong. Its like they only really know how to come from behind, not play with a lead. Nevertheless, the Browns suck. Stillers dominate this one.
Baltimore at MINNESOTA -3
The Ravens defense is good but their offense is in the starring role this season. Unfortunately for them, the Vikings have a defense that can bottle up their newly dynamic offense and savvy/gritty/gutty/grizzled/tough/wise/veteran QB BRETTFAVRE will yet again perform well enough to solve any blitz thrown at him. Percy Harvin scores here too I think...just a random Peter King like guess there. You like that, I know it.
St. Louis at JACKSONVILLE -9.5
Sure the Jags got shut out last week, but the Rams have been shut out twice this year! Its scary laying this many points on the Jags, but I just have that little faith in the Rams ability to get in the end zone...that and I have a huge man crush on MJD.
Carolina at TAMPA BAY +3
This one is a pure gut feeling play here. I just think that Tampa's running game and their super mobile QB will present a lot of problems for Carolina. Also, after 2 tough road games, this could be the Bucs' last chance at a win in a while in a home game against a mentally beaten down team. I think the upset happens and Tampa wins its 1st game of the year.
Detroit at GREEN BAY -13.5
It is looking more and more like Calvin Johnson won't be playing on Sunday. This news is horrible for my fantasy team, but excellent for my wallet. Take the Packers here and rest easy knowing your money is about to double up.
ARIZONA +3 at Seattle
Its tough to play in Seattle for sure, but Arizona does it twice a year and know what they are getting into. Well, that and the Seahawks really aren't a good team despite what they did last week to Jacksonville. Kurt Warner flies high this game Arizona will win straight up, if the moneyline was better i would be all over that.
Bills at Jets UNDER 37.5
If you don't live on the east coast, you might not know this but...it is friggin wet. REAL WET right now. This deluge wont stop for days, its Friday morning when i'm writing this and it wont stop raining until sometime next week. It will be raining on Sunday and with the Jets starting a rookie QB from Southern California and the Bills just being one of the worst teams in football playing one of the best defenses in the league...I am thinking all of this will keep the score loooooow.
Tennessee at NEW ENGLAND -9
The Patriots are going to flex their muscles here and show that they can, at times, play like the dominating team they used to be. The Titans will just stand idly by watching as it happens to them. No shocker here when the Pats win.
Chicago at ATLANTA -3.5
After last weekend's offensive explosion, how do you not roll the dice and pick the Falcons here? You have to like what Ryan and White are doing in the air and Turner seems to be gaining his footing this season as a RB. Their D is also playing some decent football. I think the Bears hit a wall in Atlanta.
Denver at SAN DIEGO -3.5
The Chargers are coming off a bye week having rested and licked their wounds and they are going to come out, at home, on Monday night and put an end to the amazing win streak the Broncos are on right now. Believe in NORV! Chargers will win!
UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK
NEW YORK GIANTS +3 at New Orleans
In my mind, the Giants are the most complete team in the NFC and possibly the NFL, unless they prove me otherwise by getting their asses handed to them, I think they should be favored in every game this year. So, in light of that, any time they are underdogs I am taking them...even though New Orleans is at home and coming off a bye week. 2 things that mean that I will probably soon be parted with my money...but i'm still liking the Giants here.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
PHILADELPHIA -14 at Oakland
I think there is some rule to NFL sports betting that if the home team is a 14 point underdog, you really just have to take them...but screw that rule. This year in the NFL has been no stranger to some crazy blowouts. The difference between the the haves and the have nots is HUGE this season. Take the Eagles, they cover this huge line easy. And if you're ever up in Philly, hit up Monk's Belgian Cafe...seriously the best mussels and fries in the city and a great selection of Belgian beers.
*Deuce of Davenport is only doing this column for entertainment purposes only, you'd be a fool to actually follow any of this advice and/or these picks. We accept no responsibility for anyone actually gambling with these picks.