Last week we went a lame 6-7-2, losing the upset special and winning the lock of the week. Of course, things could've changed if i was allowed to pick the 'Skins and and change my Patriots bet to New Orleans which I did later in my own personal action, but you gotta roll with what ya got, and what I've got is an overall record of 92-74 with 2 pushes. My locks of the week are now 7-5 and my upset specials are 5-7. Quite a mirror image there. We know we can do better though and we strive for perfection this week, lucky 13. Shall we get on to the picks? As always, all lines are from TheGreek. Hot cheerleader is Melissa from the Atlanta Falcons. Scroll to the bottom if you want to skip to the Upset Special and the Lock of the Week.*
DENVER -5 at Kansas City
Starting off with a real winner here, eh? I am liking Denver to win this one easily by 5 points, especially after seeing what they did last week against New York, beating them by 20. When Orton is healthy and playing for this Broncos squad they seem to always have a chance and their defensive shortcomings shouldnt get exposed too much against this Chiefs squad. Take the Broncos here easy.
As a side note, I just spilled water all over myself. Whenever I drink any other beverage but water, I take my time with it, taking small enough gulps so that nothing spills out too fast from whatever lip of whatever glass I am drinking from...but not water. With water, the rules of drinking go by the wayside. I will throw my head back and chug that bitch down like I've been wandering in the Mojave desert for 3 days. If it spills on me, meh, its just water, it'l dry and it'l be like nothing happens. Normally this isnt too much of an issue, except when I do it at work and I have to hide out in my office until my shirt or pants dry from the water I was splashing on myself. No, i'm not sweating, no, its not pee. Just water. Anyone else do this? Can't just be me drinking with such reckless abandon.
Oakland at Pittsburgh OVER 37
I hate the large line on this game. Who knows what Big Ben's head is gonna be like in this game? Who knows how Gradkowski will do against the Steelers D? Who know how well the Steelers will perform without Polamalu yet again? I don't know any of this. So, personally, I would stay away from this like a $2 beer night in Georgetown. But, if you must be a douche and go, then just take the Over. 37 seems low, like they are daring you to make this bet. Well, take the dare, you're a douchebag anyway since you're in georgetown drinking bud lite for 2 bucks, you might as well go home with the ugly girl that is just daring you to dance with her.
HOUSTON +1 at Jacksonville
Both of these teams are pretty middling teams in the NFL at 5-6 and 6-5 respectively. The Titans are in the midst of a 3 game skid and what looks to be another mediocre season, the Jaguars are coming off a loss of their own and are just as average Each team has a star on it with Andre Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew playing the role of offensive superstars. So who to choose? Well i am taking the Texans here. My analysis? I have none...but that was a nice little lead-up to absolutely nothing huh? Toss a coin here, you could do worse. Take the Texans, get some odds.
PHILADELPHIA -5 at Atlanta
Philly has lost one of their young wide receivers, but another will just sprout up to take his place. It wasn't so long ago that Philadelphia had no actual talent at wide receiver, now between Jackson, Avant and Maclin they don't even need former starters Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis...well with Jackson down this week, Brown and Curtis will have to step right in. The Falcons will be without Matty Ice this week after he fucked over countless fantasy teams last week going out after throwing for 15 yards with what was described as "a toe".
You never want to see your fantasy football season end in week 12 because your quarterback had a toe injury. Its not like Ryan runs around that much, they have a decent line, why does he need a fully functioning toe? Is he throwing the damn ball with his toe? He isn't a kicker or punter, and, as a matter of fact, they don't even kick with their toes. If this was 20 years ago Matt Ryan would've cut the toe off and just kept playing a la Ronnie Lott and his finger lo' these many years ago.
But I guess ya cant go back. Anyway, Chris Redman is starting and while he played well last week, I dont trust him as far as Matt Ryan's toe will take him on a walkabout. I'm taking the Eagles here.
Detroit at CINCINNATI -13
The Bengals' offense is not that impressive right now. Their line stinks and they've been asking Palmer to do too much lately with no help besides the impressive Ocho Cinco. Luckily, they're getting back Cedric Benson this week and should be able to move the ball on the ground against the lowly Lions. These Lions are banged up, did you see Calvin Johnson try to move last week? They say he's alright this week but my 88 year old grandma has more git-up-n-go in her step than him. Stafford is not well either. So you have an injured star receiver, a hurt rookie quarterback and a running back that is average in all ways with average defense and a bad offensive line. Yup, looks like they might not win another game this year. Congrats to them though, they are 2 games better than last year. Take the Bengals here.
NEW ORLEANS -9.5 at Washington
Some weeks I actually want to take my Redskins in some sports betting action, but I don't because I cannot be a homer gambler anymore. Regardless, this week is not one of those weeks. New Orleans is going to face rape the Redskins. It is going to happen and it won't be pretty. Bangbus wouldn't even film this. I am not even sure if I am going to watch this game. Take New Orleans...do not look directly at the television set...just read the box score later. It'l be alright someday Redskins fans.
Tampa Bay at CAROLINA -6
Carolina is starting untested Matt Moore at quarterback, Tampa Bay is starting slightly tested Josh Freeman at quarterback. This is like the futures game of the week in the NFL. I'm going with the total unknown here, he's got a decent running game and a somewhat solid defense to fall back on while Freeman just has his legs. Take Carolina, buy some Christmas presents for the kids with the money you will win on this one.
St. Louis at CHICAGO -9
This game looks a whole lot like the Detroit one we just talked about, only the Bears are far worse than the Bengals while the Rams might even be worse than the Lions. So why am I taking the bears this week? Well because the Rams shouldnt be able to put enough pressure on Cutler for him to make the mistakes he's been making lately. I'm so confident in this, i am actually starting him in a must win game for my big money fantasy team this week. My confidence is awesome...and will be my downfall.
Not that you care at all about my fantasy team either but forgive the rant. Just know that I have cut my 2nd and 4th round draft picks, my 1st and 3rd rounders are both hurt and Cutler is my starter this week. I have basically already lost.
San Diego at CLEVELAND +13.5
What is this madness you say? Taking the Browns vs the slightly mighty Chargers? Why am I doing this? Because Mad Max Beyond the Thunderdome is about over an this column isnt even close to being finished. Well that and because as bad as the Browns have been lately, their defense isnt really this bad and its about time for good ole Norville Turner to put on a real stinker of a game after they've been playing well these past few weeks. On the road, heavy favorites...I dont like it. 2 MEN ENTER 1 MAN LEAVES! Take the Browns.
SAN FRANCISCO +1 at Seattle
I know, I know, you must think I have some vendetta against the Seahawks this year...or you have no idea what I am talking about. To clarify, I always seem to bet against the 'Hawks, and I've lost a few times, sure. But for the most part, this has been a winning strategy and I dont see that stopping this week. If i was even more of a gambling man than I already am I'd take the 49ers moneyline. I just can see Seattle running their offense this week by allowing Julius Jones back into the fold. Justin Forsett was THE MAN last week and he should be the main ball carrier but he wont be and they will lose because of it.
Also, where the hell has Mike Singletary been this season? Last year he was taking pants off and yelling at reporters and benching players. I mean, remember this?
How awesome was that? CAN'T DO IT. This year, he's turned into the black, dentures lisping Bill Belichick. I don't like it one bit. They 49ers have been losing because Singletary's taken the edge off his game, if he brings it back old school this week, I really like their chances. Well...even if he doesn't I like em. Take the 49ers.
Dallas at NY GIANTS +1
This is a tough game to pick. Eli is still injured and this team does not work with him injured. So why am I picking the Giants, especially after losing last week to the Broncos? Simple. I hate the Cowboys and think that 8-3 is way above where they should be record wise at this point in the season. They must regress to the mean. This will be the start. Take the Giants. My non-scientific approach to sports gambling tells you so.
BALTIMORE +3 at Green Bay
The Pack has been an underwhelming team even with a 7-4 record. The Ravens have been more underwhelming. Despite the Packers' offense lighting up the fantasy scoreboard all season, their line stinks and while the Ravens' defense isnt what it used to be, they should be able to attack the Packers with the blitz, and cause Rogers to do too much. This week, I like Joe Flaccooooe to win hun. Take the Ravens.
UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK
TENNESSEE +6.5 at Indianapolis
This is one game I am looking forward to. It was just a few weeks ago that Titans coach Jeff Fisher wanted to be a winner like Peyton Manning, now his team has won 5 in a row and is somehow in the playoff hunt. The Colts are unbeaten and this might be the week that they finally lose one of these close games they've been playing lately. Comeback win against the Texans, win by 2 against the Ravens, win by 1 against the Patriots, win by 3 at home against the Texans, win by just 4 against the 49ers...this doesnt inspire confidence does it? I think this week, the colts go DOWN. If I was any more certain, I'd take the Titans moneyline at +230, but instead, i'll play it safe and take the points. If they don't win, it is gonna be a close one.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
MINNESOTA -3.5 at Arizona
Minnesota is a damn good team, damn good. Arizona might be starting Matt Leinart. Is there any reason why this line is still -3.5? Just take the Vikings already, this is as sure a thing as possible.
*Deuce of Davenport is only doing this column for entertainment purposes only, you'd be a fool to actually follow any of this advice and/or these picks. We accept no responsibility for anyone actually gambling with these picks.